Chinese influence, North East strife: How the frontlines of Myanmar ethnic conflict extend to India

What does the continued large-scale fighting in the Myanmar civil war mean for India? The violence in Myanmar began when the military forcibly took over power in February 2021, deposing the elected government. In response, three major ethnic armed groups united to form the Three Brotherhood Alliance – the Arakan Army, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army – which then launched a concerted offensive against the junta forces. Today, the fighting has intensified on many fronts with the Arakan Army taking control of the country’s border with Bangladesh.

Myanmar has seen ethnic insurgencies almost since its independence from British colonial rule in 1948, shaping the contours of the current conflict. Ethnic rebel groups like the Kachin Independence Army, Shan State Army, and the Arakan Army, among others, have been engaged in insurgencies against central authorities for decades. However, the 2021 military coup marked a watershed moment with the formation of the People’s Defence Forces by civilians and defectors from Myanmar’s armed forces – beyond just the ethnic militias that had historically opposed the state. The People’s Defence Forces is working with various groups fighting the junta, including the aforementioned Three Brotherhood Alliance. In response, the junta…

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